FORTUCAST FINANCIAL VISIONS into the FUTURE
--Charts, analysis and longer-term trading ideas

What if you had a nearly accurate chart from the future for any commodity or stock index?

Barry Rosen’s unique, long-term cycle analysis forecasts when

• Gold will spike over $3000
• Dollar will hit historic lows
• Stock market will crash again
• Inflation and deflation cycles hit on most massive scale

FORTUCAST FINANCIAL VISIONS INTO THE FUTURE
combine the amazing insight of Barry Rosen’s long-term timing analysis with charts projecting likely patterns and key dates of the future. The focus is on longer-term swing and position trades in conjunction with traditional Elliott Wave overlays.

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• Timed Elliott Waves with potential alternate patterns
• 1 - 5 year chart projections
• In depth fundamental analysis
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LONG-TERM: Everyone’s premise is that bailout money will eventually cause massive inflation but the question is when? It could start as early as April 2010 but would be short-lived for only about 3 months into June 2010 before massive deflation happens and then it should start for real into 2011 when we could see 20-30% inflation into 2013.

Currencies are tied to inflation and the Euro could be the first region hit but it may do a massive run-up beyond 160 first into the June 2010 high.

As Manfred Zimmel, a noted German economist notes in his 2009 annual forecast:

“A long-term benchmark for currencies is true inflation (defined as M3 minus GDP growth) because inflation determines the fundamental value of a currency over the long haul. To put it another way: inflation is the speed of currency destruction. Today all fiat currencies are in the process of dying. Euro M3 growth since 1999 was only 1.7% lower than US M3 (reconstructed since 2006), that’s not much. On the other hand, European economic growth was about 2.3% higher each year, so a rule of thumb is to expect EUR/USD to appreciate 4% per year on average.”

The European Union may be the first to go as countries like Italy, Greece and Hungry have giant spreads in their interest rates in comparison to the German Bund. Probably somewhere in the next financial crisis between June-Dec. 2010, we will see the EU fall apart and the Euro could go with it.

BIG PICTURE: (8/11) Above, we outlined a crisis for the European Union between June 2010-Dec. 2010 and how that could lead to the dissolution of the Euro and a flight to quality to the dollar. Until then the Euro will be a fun play going up to 160 or higher into June 2010 and possibly higher depending on how far crude oil rallies, as oil is influenced by Middle East wars. A war-and-violence cycle in late September/early October could lead to a spike. The Oct. 15, 2009-March 21, 2010 time window may be congestive but we are not clear on the parameters. It does seem like 150-52 is a possible target high for the Oct. 12-15 cycle high.

For now the Euro is close to first resistance at 145.68 with major support at 138.46-138.71. If the Euro can stay above the 140.00 region, then there is a small chance of seeing 145.68. If not then the market would quickly fall to the 138.46 region. We are not totally clear how the cycle lows into Aug. 26 and Sept. 17 will come in and if lower numbers are possible. We do see a strong rally worth buying Sept. 18-22-Oct. 16 approximately and that one would be the one to go to 148-152.

Note that we are dealing with a few possible patterns. Our favorite, based on crude, would suggest a large congestion triangle pattern between the Nov. 2009 low and the March 21, 2010 secondary low.

There are all kinds of other events that could happen in that window but if crude falls quickly to 55.00 into late November, then we will go with that one. If crude fails to fall significantly once it finished 5 waves up toward 8126, then we may have to watch the Jan. 15 and March 21 lows see if the 55.00 region comes in there. This then gets translated into the Euro.

Dollar Index

Chart courtesy of CQG Inc.

The dollar may end up being a flight to quality vehicle and rally sharply into Dec. 2010-Feb. 2011 and our original target was a recovery back to the 100 region with a first stop of 90. Assuming that the Euro will at least be at 160 or higher toward 180 into the June 2010 low, we are assuming that this will be the best place to be buying dollars. Our long-term dollar target for June 2010 has been the 66-67 region before a massive rally follows.

Short-term the British Pound will do well against the dollar after a fall to 158 with a short-term target of 177.50 into mid-October but if the Euro goes above 160, then the Pound may even take out 210 into June 2010 and go as high as 225.

The Yen may end up being the strongest foreign currency as we go into 2011-2013 as it is closest to China, which will do well initially until the U.S. economy really collapses after 2012-13. Monthly chart trend lines into Feb. 2012 point toward 126.20, which seems unheard of but we are moving into unbelievable times. They yen may first collapse to 8000 with the dollar into June 2010.

TIMING: We would focus on the Oct. 12-15 time window for a dollar low and Nov. 24, 2009 and March 2010 for dollar highs and then a massive dollar meltdown into June 2010 and then a crazier rally toward 100 on the dollar index into Feb. 2011.

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